Labor has all the momentum as we head into the last few days of the election campaign, leading across all key issues, including the traditional Coalition strongholds of the economy, interest rates, trade and immigration. Labor has opened up an 18-point lead over the Coalition on who’s best to manage cost of living, the main driver of voter choice for the 3 May poll.
However, against a backdrop of Donald Trump’s trade wars and extreme market volatility, Australians are feeling increasingly negative about the short and medium-term economic outlook and may be looking for “safe havens”. This is favouring the incumbent Labor Government as it also looks to have done in the Canadian election.
Labor’s policies around urgent care clinics, reducing the cost of PBS medicines and electricity rebates have the strongest support, while the proposed reduction of fuel excise has been the most resonant policy for the Coalition.
The plunge in Australians’ attitude towards the US is particularly striking and underscores the tricky line the Australian government will have to walk in the next term on trade and defence policy – particularly if the trade war between two of our most significant trading partners continues deteriorating.
Federal Labor policy initiatives that enjoy the highest level of community support included creation of 50 extra urgent care clinics (86% support), reducing the cost of PBS medicines (82%) and the $150 electricity rebates (81%). The Coalition policy with the strongest support was reducing the fuel excise (76%), but support for all other Coalition policies tested rated below those of Labor.
38% of Australians now believe the Federal Government is doing at least a ‘good’ job, up from 32% earlier this year. This represents the strongest result since June 2023. Among State Governments, perceived performance of the Victorian Government has fallen to an all-time low of 25%.
The proportion of Australians feeling more negative than positive emotions has spiked to an equal record high of 61%, up from 51% in February. At the same time, pessimism towards the economy for the shorter-term has increased significantly (47% think it will get worse in the next 3 months, up from 34%), and edged upwards for the next 12 months (44%, up from 40%). However, an increasing number of Australians believe the country is heading in the right direction, rising from 38% to 43%, and feel relatively more positive about the longer-term economic outlook.
Australians are increasingly likely to believe that Donald Trump’s presidency is having a range of negative impacts, including on global peace and security, our relationship with the USA, the cost of living, the Australian economy and the global response to climate change. At the same time, Federal Labor is set to benefit with a quarter of voters saying Trump’s actions make them more likely to vote for Labor, while only 10% say they are more likely to vote for the Coalition.
In findings almost unimaginable a few short months ago, Australians are more likely to hold a negative view of our relationship with the USA (26% rate it as poor or very poor) than with China (20%), while Russia is the only country rated more poorly than the USA (49%). Furthermore, China (44%) is more likely to be seen as a reliable trading partner than the USA (26%). Despite this, Australians remain cautious about deeper Chinese influence, with 55% believing the government is allowing too much Chinese investment in Australia.
The Albanese Government says it would be happy to make the next election a referendum on the Coalition’s proposal to lift the ban on nuclear energy in Australia. With support for renewable sources of energy continuing to be much higher than for nuclear, 42% of Australians oppose a removal of the nuclear ban. Support for a ban removal is strongest amongst men (48%) and Coalition supporters (55%).
There has been a marked turnaround in advantage to Albanese on the key issues of cost-of-living. While Australians are feeling more negative about their short- and medium-term economic outlooks in the face of Trump’s market turmoil, Labor is the clear beneficiary of the uncertainty, with incumbent governments seen as safe havens. Under Trump, Australians have an increasingly negative view about our trade relationship with the US.
Contact us for more information about the full Mood of the Nation research report or if we can help you navigate community or stakeholder sentiment or expectations.
Peter Collingridge, Director, SEC Newgate Research – [email protected]
Feyi Akindoyeni, Founding Partner, SEC Newgate Australia – [email protected]
Clint McGilvray, Partner, SEC Newgate Australia – [email protected]
SEC Newgate’s integrated approach draws on our national team’s experience and networks to deliver a full service offering.
